Dissident AIDS Database

EpidemiologyStatisticsAIDSEstimated figures
Kumulative Verwirrung
 1
  Most statisticians have added all AIDS cases since the beginning of the 1980s together – that is, they have presented them cumulatively. The figures automatically rise, even if only a few new cases are still coming in each year. "Cumulative Confusion": "Nobody thinks of adding up the case figures for mumps, tuberculosis or scarlet fever from the day the law on epidemics was passed" Consequently, the only sense in such a form of presentation is that "Large figures bring in large amounts of public money."
  Deutsches Ärzteblatt, 1989, 86, vol. 17, B 853/C 7491989
AIDS in Africa, In Search of the Truth
 Malan Rian
  "But AIDS mostly occurs in Africa, where hospitals are thinly spread, understaffed and often bereft of the laboratory equipment necessary to confirm HIV infections. How do you track an epidemic under these conditions? In 1985, the WHO asked experts to hammer out a simple description of AIDS, something that would enable bush doctors to recognize the symptoms and start counting cases, but the outcome was a fiasco - partly because doctors struggled to diagnose the disease with the naked eye, but mostly because African governments were too disorganized to collect the numbers and send them in. Once it become clear that the case-reporting system wasn't working, the WHO devised an alternative, by which Africa's AIDS statistics are now primarily based. It works like this: On any given morning anywhere in sub-Saharan Africa, you'll find crowds of expectant mothers ling up outside government prenatal clinics, waiting for a routine checkup that includes the drawing of a blood sample to test for syphilis. According UNAIDS, "anonymous blood specimens left over from these tests are tested for antibodies to HIV," a ritual that usually takes place once a year. The results are fed into a computer model that uses "simple back-calculation procedures" and knowledge of "the well-known natural course of HIV infection" to produce statistics for the continent In other words, AIDS researchers descend on selected clinics, remove the leftover blood samples and screen them for traces of HIV The results are forwarded to Geneva and fed into a computer program called Epi-model: If a given number of pregnant women are HIV-positive, the formula says, then a certain percentage of all adults and children are presumed to be infected, too. And if that many people are infected, it follows that a percentage of them must have died. Hence, when UNAIDS announces 14 million Africans have succumbed to AIDS, it does not mean 14 million infected bodies have been counted. It means that 14 million people have theoretically died, some of them unseen in Africa's swamps, shantytowns and vast swaths of terra incognita."
  RollingStone magazine, November 22, 20012001
Estimates on HIV called too high, New data cut rates for many nations
 Donnelly John
  Another [reason for over-inflated estimation of HIV and AIDS numbers] is that most countries do not collect data on deaths. Once officials from UNAIDS and the WHO arrive at an HIV prevalence estimate for a country, they use that estimate to help determine AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, numbers of people needing antiretroviral treatment, and the average life expectancy for people in countries. As HIV prevalence numbers are adjusted downward, the numbers for the other AIDS-related categories also will be readjusted similarly. To estimate the number of people dying from AIDS, for instance, epidemiologists assume that on average a person will live for eight or nine years after infection; they then plot the progression of a country's epidemic, determining how many people were infected in each year. If HIV prevalence estimates are significantly wrong in any year, estimates for AIDS deaths will be correspondingly wrong eight or nine years later.
  The Boston Globe, June 20, 20042004
World Health Organization¹s Weekly Epidemiological Record
 1
  2001. Global AIDS Estimates 58 Million; Actual Global AIDS Cases 2.7 Million. 2,500 AIDS cases in Japan in over 20 years of AIDS reporting. 1,100 total cases in China in over 20 years, a nation media stories declare is exploding with millions of AIDS cases So were those estimated cases? 8,400 cases in India in 20 years, a cumulative total far under the 3 to 4 million estimated AIDS cases announced in recent media coverage. 18,000 total cases in the United Kingdom in 20 years, or less than 1,000 cases per year for the entire period of the AIDS epidemic. 19,000 Canadian AIDS cases in two decades, again, less than 1,000 cases per year for each year of the AIDS epidemic
  www.who.int/wer/pdf/2001/wer7649.pdf2001
Update on Uganda : an analysis of the predictions and assumptions about the former epicenter of the AIDS epidemic. Implications for other African countries
 Fiala Chistian
  "Then, in order to get a total estimate of Aids cases, WHO at it’s headquarters in Geneva adds the registered Aids sufferers to a high number of unreported cases, which WHO presumes to have occurred. Thus in November 1997, the WHO announced that since its previous report in July 1996, there had been a further 4.5 million Aids cases in Africa. In this period, however, only 120,000 Aids sufferers were actually registered. In other words, 97 percent of the supposed new Aids cases during this period occurred only at the WHO headquarters in Geneva. The WHO has since been avoiding this absurdity by preparing the statistics differently. Now, healthy people with a positive HIV test are included in the WHO statistics together with those suffering from Aids. Again this procedure is highly unusual in medicine. As for example in tuberculosis no one has suggested putting together sick people actually suffering from tuberculosis and those that are healthy but having antibodies against the bacteria."
  http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/327/7408/184-a2003
AIDS IN AFRICA – THE WAY FORWARD, Retrospect from a European point of view
 Fiala Chistian
  "Finally, another figure is added on top of the registered cases in order to take account of the non-registered cases. Interestingly the number of registered cases in Africa has been relatively low in recent years. In contrast to this the estimate of non-registered cases has assumed unbelievable proportions. Thus the total number of AIDS cases in Africa consists almost entirely not of registered cases but of cases estimated by he WHO. Figures : Number of AIDS-cases in Africa following the WHO cases in Africa (cumulative since 1980) reported in millions => estimated underreporting in millions => estimated total in millions => estimated cases in % of the total : [WHO report July 1994] 0.33 => 2.35 => 2.68 => 88% / [WHO report January 1995] 0.35 => 2.8 => 3.15 => 89% / [WHO report July 1996] 0.5 => 5.43 => 5.93 => 91,6% / [WHO report November 1997] 0.62 => 9.78 => 10.4 => 94%."
  http://www.virusmyth.net/aids/data/chrfafrica2.htm2000
AIDS in Africa, In Search of the Truth
 Malan Rian
  "Since it was indeed true that the very large numbers of South Africans were dying, then the nation's coffin makers had to be laboring hard to keep pace with growing demand. One newspaper account I found told of a company called Affordable Coffins, purveyor of cheap cardboard caskets, which had more orders than it could fill. But the firm was barely two months old when the story ran, and two rival entrepreneurs who launched similar products a few years back had gone under. "People weren't interested." said a dejected Mr. Rob Whyte. "They wanted coffins made of real wood." So I called the real-wood firms, three industrialists who manufactured coffins on an assembly line for the national market. "It's quiet," said Kurt Lammerding of GNG Pine Products. His competitors concurred - business was dead, so to speak. "It's a fact," said Mr. A. B. Schwegman of B&A Coffins. "If you go on what you read in the papers, we should be overwhelmed, but there's nothing. So what's going on? You tell me." I couldn't, although I suspected it might have something to do with race. Since the downfall of apartheid, in 1994, illegal backyard funeral parlors have mushroomed in the black townships, and my sources couldn't discount the possibility that these outfits were scoring their coffins from the underground economy. So, I called a black-owned firm, Mmabatho Coffins, but it had gone out of business, along with some others I tried calling. This was getting seriously weird. The death rate had almost doubled in the past decade, according to a recent story in South Africa's largest newspaper. "These aren't projections," said the Sunday Times. "These are the facts." And if the facts were correct, I thought, someone somewhere had to be prospering in the coffin trade. Further inquiries led me to Johannesburg's derelict downtown, where a giant multistory parking garage has recently been transformed into a vast warren of carpentry workshops, each housing a black carpenter, set up in business with government seed money. I wandered around searching for coffin makers, but there were only two. Eric Borman said business was good, but he was a master craftsman who made one or two deluxe caskets a week and seemed to resent the suggestion his customers were the sort of people who died of AIDS. For that, I'd have to talk to Penny. Borman pointed, and off I went, deeper and deeper into the maze. Penny's place was locked up and deserted. Inside, I saw unsold coffins stacked ceiling-high, and a forlorn CLOSED sign hung on a wire."
  RollingStone magazine, November 22, 20012001