Dissident AIDS Database

EpidemiologyStatisticsAIDSFailed predictions
Update on Uganda : an analysis of the predictions and assumptions about the former epicenter of the AIDS epidemic. Implications for other African countries
 Fiala Chistian
  "But even based on this highly unusual and unreliable definition, the number of Aids cases in Uganda has peaked in 1991 and remained rather small since : 10235 in 1991 to 2303 in 2000 (Ministry of health, Kampala, Uganda)."
  http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/327/7408/184-a2003
But—What About Africa?
 Rasnick David, Fiala Christian
  Today, however, one reads little about Aids in Uganda because all the prophesies have proved false, as evidenced in the ten-year census of September 2002. [Results from the Population Census from September 2002. 2002.] Summing up, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics says, “Uganda’s Population grew at an average annual rate of 3.4% between 1991 and 2002. The high rate of population growth is mainly due to the persistently high fertility levels (about seven children per woman) that have been observed for the past four decades. The decline in mortality reflected by a decline in Infant and Childhood Mortality Rates as revealed by the Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys (UDHS) of 1995 and 2000-2001, have also contributed to the high population growth rate.” In other words, the already very high population growth in Uganda has further increased over the past 10 years and is now among the highest in the world. [United Nations Population Fund. The State of World Population 2001, Demographic, Social and Economic Indicators, 2001]
  http://www.redflagsweekly.com/conferences/aids/2004_apr28.html2004
But—What About Africa?
 Rasnick David, Fiala Christian
  South Africa is the richest country in sub-Saharan Africa and has the most reliable statistics on the continent. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reports a constant growth in the population of South Africa from 38 million in 1994 to 43 million in 2001. Furthermore, the rise in the number of deaths from all causes during the same period was also constant, growing as the population grows—but no faster. The increase in the number of deaths in South Africa parallels and is explained by the growth in the population. There was even a slight drop in the number of deaths for 2000 and 2001. There is clearly no indication that AIDS (or anything else for that matter) is depopulating South Africa. [Statistics South Africa. Causes of death in South Africa 1997-2001, 2002. Statistics South Africa. South African Statistics 2000, 2000]
  http://www.redflagsweekly.com/conferences/aids/2004_apr28.html2004
AIDS IN AFRICA, A field experience in Tanzania
 Deru Marc
  "For two years, in line with what he had learnt at the IMTA [Antwerp Institute of Tropical Medicine], Philippe continues to look upon the health situation as the consequence of an epidemic attributable to a new virus - HIV - and he decides to do some testing. What he first notices is that the children, whether HIV-positive or negative, have exactly equal chances of being restored to health, provided they receive proper nourishment and care. What he also notices is that HIV-positive subjects, when tested following a bout of malaria, for instance, can be HIV-negative six months later... Philippe returns to Tanzania and, in order to clear up the matter once and for all, goes about testing all of the inhabitants (some 842 persons) of a village. Result: 13.8% are HIV-positive, whereas the WHO states that in the Great Lakes Region, some 40 to 50% are contaminated by HIV"... Since then, Philippe Krynen has retired from the "public life" of congresses and relations with the major press media. He goes about implementing his health programme quietly and efficiently by applying and disseminating elementary common-sense measures... In the meantime, he makes another observation: young HIV-positive children who are vaccinated in accordance with Western practices and treated with Bactrim and Nizoral to prevent the onset of opportunistic diseases continue to have very fragile immune systems and all too frequently die... Thus, from 1994-1995 onwards, these "preventive" measures are also set aside, resulting in a very noticeable drop in infantile mortality. .. What makes Philippe Krynen's experience in Tanzania particularly interesting derives from the timespan it covers and that the results obtained can now be evaluated with 12 years of hindsight. In 1989, he set himself up in the region considered to be the very epicentre of the AIDS epidemic, in the midst of a population declared by the WHO and the big media to be doomed to rapid decimation, unless drastic measures were taken to halt the spread of a new and deadly sexually transmitted virus called HIV. It so happens that since that time, no one in this area was treated with antiviral drugs..., no condoms were distributed,... and HIV tests revealed themselves to be of no practical use whatsoever. Medical follow-up of thousands of orphans and abandoned children was based on ensuring an adequate and balanced diet, consumption of safe drinking water and providing a safe and secure family-type environment. Prevention consisted essentially in educating the population in basic hygiene as well as in the use of mosquito netting. Medical care per se was limited to the classical treatment of endemic diseases (malaria, borreliosis, tuberculosis, parasitic ailments) and of two types of acute diseases which are a frequent cause of mortality: respiratory infections, on the one hand, and intestinal conditions (of parasitic, bacterial or mycotic [fungal] origin) with serious diarrhea and dehydration, on the other. In the space of only a few years, these basic sanitation measures led to a spectacular decline in morbidity and mortality, as well as to the disappearance of this immunodeficiency epidemic which had placed the region at the epicentre of AIDS... In the area covered by Partage Tanzania, the infant mortality rate (ie for that part of the population under 18 years of age) is now, according to statistics, equivalent to a third of the national rate for that same age group, and to a quarter of the rate for the Kagera region as a whole... The Partage Tanzania Programme is now approved, supported and often cited by the Tanzanian authorities as an example to follow in the development field... At present, the Great Lakes Region no longer makes the headlines. Rather, it is countries such as Botswana or South Africa, said to be "contaminated to the extent of 40 or 50% by HIV", which are the object of apocalyptic forecasts..."
  www.robertogiraldo.com/brussels/Deru_2001.html2001
Africa isn’t dying of Aids
 Malan Rian
  "It was an article from The Spectator describing the bizarre sex practices that contribute to HIV’s rampage across the continent. ‘One in five of us here in Zambia is HIV positive,’ said the report. ‘In 1993 our neighbour Botswana had an estimated population of 1.4 million. Today that figure is under a million and heading downwards. Doom merchants predict that Botswana may soon become the first nation in modern times literally to die out. This is Aids in Africa.’ Really? Botswana has just concluded a census that shows population growing at about 2.7 per cent a year, in spite of what is usually described as the worst Aids problem on the planet. Total population has risen to 1.7 million in just a decade. If anything, Botswana is experiencing a minor population explosion. Really? Botswana has just concluded a census that shows population growing at about 2.7 per cent a year, in spite of what is usually described as the worst Aids problem on the planet. Total population has risen to 1.7 million in just a decade. If anything, Botswana is experiencing a minor population explosion. There is similar bad news for the doomsayers in Tanzania’s new census, which shows population growing at 2.9 per cent a year. Professional pessimists will be particularly discomforted by developments in the swamplands west of Lake Victoria, where HIV first emerged, and where the depopulated villages of popular mythology are supposedly located. Here, in the district of Kagera, population grew at 2.7 per cent a year before 1988, only to accelerate to 3.1 per cent even as the Aids epidemic was supposedly peaking. Uganda’s latest census tells a broadly similar story, as does South Africa’s... When the virus first emerged, I was living in America, where HIV incidence was estimated to be doubling every year or so. Every time I turned on the TV, Madonna popped up to warn me that ‘Aids is an equal-opportunity killer’, poised to break out of the drug and gay subcultures and slaughter heterosexuals. In 1985, a science journal estimated that 1.7 million Americans were already infected, with ‘three to five million’ soon likely to follow suit. Oprah Winfrey told the nation that by 1990 ‘one in five heterosexuals will be dead of Aids’. We now know that these estimates were vastly and indeed deliberately exaggerated, but they achieved the desired end: Aids was catapulted to the top of the West’s spending agenda, and the estimators turned their attention elsewhere. India’s epidemic was likened to ‘a volcano waiting to explode’. Africa faced ‘a tidal wave of death’. By 1992 they were estimating that ‘Aids could clear the whole planet’. "
  The Spectator, 13 dec 20032003
Impact of insecurity, the AIDS epidemic, and poverty on population health: disease patterns and trends in Northern Uganda
 Accorsi S et al
  Results of an analysis of 186131 inpatients admitted to 6 ugandan hospitals during 1992-1998 : “A stable trend was also observed for AIDS, which is in contrast to the hypothesis that AIDS patients have displaced other patients in recent years…”
  Am j trop med hyg 2001, march-apr, 64(3-4), 214-212001
Update on Uganda : an analysis of the predictions and assumptions about the former epicenter of the AIDS epidemic. Implications for other African countries
 Fiala Chistian
  "Newsweek in 1986 (dec 1) : “Nowhere is the disease more rampant than in the Rakai region of south-west Uganda, where 30 percent of the people are estimated to be seropositive.” The WHO confirmed “by mid-1991 an estimated 1,5 million Ugandans, or about 9% of the general population and 20% of the sexually active population, had HIV infection”. (Taso Uganda – The inside story, Taso - WHO, 1995; WHO/GPA/ TCO/HCS/95.1). Similar reports were repeatedly published during the last 15 years… announcing the practically inevitable collapse of the country in which the worldwide epidemic supposedly originated. Today, however, one reads little about Aids in Uganda. Because all prophesies have proved false, as the results of the (ten-year) census in September 2002 show. (Results from the Population Census from September 2002, Uganda Bureau of Statistics, Entebbe, Uganda) Summing up, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics says, “Uganda’s population grew at an average annual rate of 3.4% between 1991 and 2002. The high rate of population growth is mainly due to the persistently high fertility levels (about seven children per woman) that have been observed for the past four decades. The decline in mortality reflected by a decline in Infant and Childhood Mortality Rates as revealed by the Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys (UDHS) of 1995 and 2000-2001, have also contributed to the high population growth rate.” In other words, the already high population growth in Uganda has further increased over the past 10 years and is now among the highest in the world. (The State of World Population 2001, Demographic, Social and Economic Indicators, http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2001/english/). Similarly economic development has shown a constant growth over the same period reflecting the energy and determination of Ugandans to improve their living conditions (Gross domestic product (GDP) 1991 to 2000 according to Uganda Bureau)."
  http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/327/7408/184-a2003