Dissident AIDS Database

EpidemiologyStatisticsAIDSRegistration of cases
Surveillance for AIDS in a central African city.
 Mann, J.M. Francis, H. Quinn, T. Asila, P.K. Bosenge, N. Nzilambi, N. Bila, K. Tamfum, M. Ruti, K. Piot, P. McCormick, J. & Curran, J.W.
  "...recognition of pediatric AIDS is particularly difficult in Kinshasha [Zaire], since many children have severe infant and childhood diseases with similar manifestations (eg, weight loss, chronic diarrhoea)"
  Journal of the American Medical Association, 1986, 255, 3255-32591986
1
 Fauci A
  The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the United States, discussing the AIDS definition in Africa states: "Well, of course it will be less reliable (than that used in non-Third-World countries). One typical example is what we call 'slim disease'. It's a wasting syndrome seen in Africa. Now that wouldn't fall under any categorization of AIDS by the standard empiric definition, but nevertheless, (slim disease) is being considered AIDS in Africa".
  AIDS Alert, January 19871987
No title
 Essex M
  "Malnutrition and general lack of medical services contributed to diarrhoea, tuberculosis, and other common African diseases that signify AIDS."
  New Scientist, 18th February 19881988
Mortality by Cause for Eight Regions of the World: Global Burden of Disease Study
 Christopher Murray and Alan Lopez
  While medically certified information is available for less than 30% of the estimated 51 million deaths that occur each year worldwide, the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) found that sub-Saharan Africa had the greatest uncertainty for the causes of mortality and morbidity since its vital registration figures were the lowest of any region in the world - a microscopic 1.1%.
  The Lancet, Vol. 349 (May 3, 1997), pp. 1269-12761997
Update on Uganda : an analysis of the predictions and assumptions about the former epicenter of the AIDS epidemic. Implications for other African countries
 Fiala Chistian
  "Reports based on this [WHO] definition are then further processed nationally before they are reported to WHO. During this first processing, strange things sometimes occur. In Tanzania for example, it was reported in one yearly report that 66% of the Aids cases did actually not qualify being called Aids, as they did not fulfil the national Aids definition. Nevertheless they were counted and reported to WHO, assuming that the people who reported the cases had made an omission at the stage of compiling forms (p 6, report N3, 1990, national health control program, ministry of Tanzania)."
  http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/327/7408/184-a2003
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY of causes of death in SA
 Statistics South Africa
  This study was undertaken by Statistics South Africa to investigate the causes of death in South Africa during the period 1997-2001. It was based on a 12 percent stratified random sample of deaths occurring during the study period. Causes of death were coded by utilizing guidelines contained in the tenth revision of the International Classification of Diseases (i.e., ICD-10). The results of this study depict changes in mortality patterns over time. These changes have tended to affect South Africans differently, depending on population group, sex and age. The five leading underlying causes of death among South Africans between 1997 and 2001 were unspecified unnatural causes (e.g., suicide, drowning, motor accidents), ill-defined causes, TB, HIV, and influenza and pneumonia, accounting for 40,9 percent of deaths in the sample. Mortality due to unspecified unnatural causes declined significantly during the study period. This decline seems to have been offset by a steep rise in mortality due to HIV, TB, and influenza and pneumonia. For example, the proportion of deaths due to HIV nearly doubled from 4,6 percent in 1997 to 8,7 percent in 2001, whereas the proportion of deaths due to unspecified unnatural causes declined from 15,3 to 8,2 percent during the same period. [Comment from David Rasnick : I have downloaded Stats SA 2000 data and the causes of deaths 2002 data to make a plot of SA population and deaths for 1994-2001. I have attached the plot (pict and pdf). Notice that the growth in population is linear, with about 930,000 new people added each year. Also note that the increase in deaths is also linear, with even a slight decrease in 2000-2001. In other words, the growth in the number of deaths is proportional to the increase in population. There is no indication that South Africans are dying at any higher rates than expected from population growth. There is no indication since 1994 that AIDS ("HIV disease") or anything else for that matter is causing South Africans to die at higher rates than normal. Since the usual increase in deaths hasn't changed means that the increase in "HIV disease"-deaths is at the expense of old causes of death. The apparent increase in "HIV disease"-deaths since 1997 (from 4% to 8% ) is an artifact of the growing practice of doctors calling old causes of death by the new name.]
  Downloaded Stats SA report on causes of death in SA, 2002.2002
FAR MORE AT STAKE THAN A DENIALIST CONSPIRACY
 Malan Rian
  "In its report, the MRC praises government for making "extensive efforts" to improve all forms of statistics-gathering. Stats SA concurs. At issue is when this improvement took place. The MRC believes completeness of death registration surged from 54% in l990 to 85% in l996, and has since remained stable.Stats SA finds this illogical, pointing out that the efforts apparently responsible for this huge improvement were conceived in l996 and fully implemented only in 1998. Here's why this is important. Birth registrations are up 36% over the past five years, even though the real-life birth rate is declining. Death registrations are up 24% in the same period. The MRC attributes the rise in deaths largely to AIDS. Government believes that rising registration is a factor."
  Business Day (South Africa) 2 Nov. 20012001
African Numbers, Problems and Number Problems
 NORIMITSU ONISHI
  "There's always a large mixture of scientific accuracy, political imperative and fund-raising," Dr. Ronald Waldman, director of the program on forced migration and health at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health, said of statistics in Africa. For example, he said, health programs tend to be directed at a single cause of mortality. So although a child in Africa or other developing areas usually dies of a combination of illnesses, he said, a program against diarrhea and another against pneumonia might each claim the same child in its statistics, "trying to make itself the most important, in order to attract donor funding." "In real life, though, kids tend to die of more than one condition at a time," Dr. Waldman said in an e-mail message, adding, "But each program would `take credit' for the death, so the total number of annual deaths, when you added up the claims of programs, would exceed the actual number of annual child deaths."
  The New York Times - August 18, 20022002
FACTOR VIII, HIV AND AIDS IN HAEMOPHILIACS: AN ANALYSIS OF THEIR RELATIONSHIP
 Papadopulos-Eleopulos Eleni , Valendar F.Turner, John M. Papadimitriou & David Causer
  In a similar study researchers from the CDC and the Department of Health in New Jersey, Puerto Rico, Boston, Washington, D.C. and Connecticut found that approximately 11% of cases had a presumptive diagnosis because, according to one AIDS epidemiologist "Many physicians are familiar enough with AIDS now that when they see a young man with pneumonia, they can make a reasonable presumptive diagnosis [of PCP] without resorting to biopsy," (1987)
  Genetica 95: 25-50, 19951995
FACTOR VIII, HIV AND AIDS IN HAEMOPHILIACS: AN ANALYSIS OF THEIR RELATIONSHIP
 Papadopulos-Eleopulos Eleni , Valendar F.Turner, John M. Papadimitriou & David Causer
  The New York State Health Department found that although 13% of the 1329 AIDS cases reported by the beginning of 1987 did have a positive HIV antibody test, clinically these individuals' symptoms were suggestive of AIDS but were not definitely diagnosed.
  Genetica 95: 25-50, 19951995
Mortality attributable to HIV infection/AIDS-United States, 1981-1990.
 US Centers for Disease Control & Los Angeles County Department of Health Services
  Between July 1986 and June 1987, the CDC had 3001 death certificates "that indicated HIV infection/AIDS", but only 85% met the CDC AIDS definition (CDC, 1991);
  CDC. 1991. MMWR 40:41-44.1991
HIV death rate doubles in SA
 1
  "The proportion of South African deaths because of HIV/Aids has nearly doubled from 4.6 to 8.7% between 1997 and 2001, Statistics SA revealed on Thursday. It said women aged between 15 and 39 died primarily as a result of HIV/Aids over this period. Men in this age group mostly died from unspecified unnatural causes. Overall, the five leading underlying causes of death were of an unnatural kind, such as injuries, suicides, car accidents and drowning. They accounted for 40.9% of deaths. Next in line was what Stats SA described as ill-defined causes, followed by tuberculosis, HIV/Aids and influenza and pneumonia. Proportion dying from Aids rises significantly. On the topic in Pretoria, Stats SA deputy director-general Gugu Gule noted that there had been a change in mortality patterns over the period concerned. Deaths due to unspecified unnatural causes declined from 15.3 to 8.7% among women as well as men in the age group between 15 and 39. "By contrast, the proportion dying from tuberculosis, HIV/Aids and influenza and pneumonia increased significantly," Gule told reporters. The study was commissioned after the Medical Research Council (MRC) released a report last year - conducted with Stats SA - which showed that 40% of deaths of those aged between 15 and 49 in 2000 were due to Aids. Stats SA later repudiated this finding, and undertook its own study at the instruction of Cabinet. The MRC's conclusion contradicted assertions by the government that violent crime was the major cause of death. President Thabo Mbeki at the time also maintained that the impact of Aids was being exaggerated... Bourne said Stats SA reported precisely what it found on death certificates, while there was an interpretive element in the MRC study. "To put it in simple terms - Stats SA merely counted while we went further and modelled our findings on the knowledge we had about HIV/Aids."Many deaths formally attributed to influenza could, for example, have been caused by Aids. "What is written on a death certificate does not necessarily give the true picture," Bourne explained. "The only way to be sure would be to test every corpse for HIV, which is practically not possible." (E-mail of David Rasnick : Stats SA uses the phrase "HIV disease" instead of AIDS as an underlying cause of death. Physicians and Stats SA arbitrarily translated some common symptoms listed on death certificates into AIDS . Though HIV is not a disease, it is truly opportunistic in that it allows doctors to commandeer the symptoms of bona fide diseases and call them "HIV disease". It seems clear that the listing of "HIV disease" is completely arbitrary and based at best on the Bangui definition of AIDS. I have downloaded Stats SA 2000 data and the causes of deaths 2002 data to make a plot of SA population and deaths for 1994-2001. Notice that the growth in population is linear, with about 930,000 new people added each year. Also note that the increase in deaths is also linear, with even a slight decrease in 2000-2001. There is no indication that South Africans are dying at any higher rates than expected from population growth. Since the usual increase in deaths hasn't changed means that the increase in "HIV disease"-deaths is at the expense of old causes of death. The apparent increase in "HIV disease"-deaths since 1997 (from 4% to 8% ) is an artifact of the growing practice of doctors calling old causes of death by the new name.)
  News24 Nov. 22, 20022002