Dissident AIDS Database

EpidemiologyStatisticsHIVFailed predictions
AIDS in Africa, In Search of the Truth
 Malan Rian
  "Dr Anthony Fauci, now head of the National Institute of Allergic and Infectious diseases, prophesied that 2 to 3 million Americans" would be HIV-positive within a decade. Newsweek's figures in a 1986 article were at least twice as high. That same year, Oprah Winfrey told the nation that "by 1990 one in five" heterosexuals would be dead of AIDS. As the hysteria intensified, challenging such certainties came to be dangerous. In 1988 New York City Health Commissioner Stephen C. Joseph reviewed the city's estimate of HIV infections, concluded that the number was inaccurate and halved it, from 400,000 to 200,000. His office was invaded by protesters, his life threatened. Demonstrators tailed him to meetings, chanting, "Resign, resign!" In hindsight, Dr. Joseph's reduced figure of 200,000 might itself be an exaggeration, given that New York City has recorded a total of around 120,000 AIDS cases since the start of the epidemic two decades ago. In 1997, a federal health official told the Washington Post that by his calculation, the true number of HIV infections in the United States back in the mid-Eighties must have been around 450,000 - less than one-third of the figure put forth at the time by the CDC. If the numbers could be gotten so wrong in America, what are we to make of the infinitely more dire death spells cast upon the developing world? In 1993, Laurie Garrett wrote in her book The Coming Plague that Thailand's AIDS epidemic was "moving at super-sonic speed." It has stalled at just below two percent, according to UNAIDS. In 1991 All India Institute of Medical Sciences official Vulmiri Ramalingaswami said AIDS in India "was sitting on top of a volcano," but infection levels there have yet to crest one percent. The only place where the AIDS apocalypse has materialized in its full and ghastly glory is in Geneva's computer models of the African pandemic, which show millions dead and far worse coming."
  RollingStone magazine, November 22, 20012001