Dissident AIDS Database

EpidemiologyStatisticsHIVHIV policies
HIV trends in African blood donors.
 Bouckenooghe A, Shandera W
  "To assess trends over the last 12 years in HIV-1/HIV-2 seroprevalence among blood donors in African nations and to correlate trends with national AIDS policies... No significant correlations between HIV policies and subsequent HIV-1 seroprevalence trends among blood donors and HIV patients were detected."
  J Infect 1999 Sep;39(2):122-81999
Update on Uganda : an analysis of the predictions and assumptions about the former epicenter of the AIDS epidemic. Implications for other African countries
 Fiala Chistian
  "It is often mentioned [about Uganda] that the energetic action of the government and the aid organisations as well as the numerous campaigns against Aids could have led to a change in sexual behaviour and thus to a fall in HIV infections. This belief, however, cannot be sustained on the basis of the indicators of sexual behaviour in Uganda, as the latest household survey in 2001 shows (demographic and health survey, 2000-2001, Uganda bureau of statistics, Entebbe, Uganda). The following indicators have been stable, some for 30 years: fertility (seven children per woman), the average age of women at the time of first sexual intercourse (16.7 years), the time of marriage (18 years) and first childbirth (18.5 years). The only indicator that has slightly changed is the proportion of married women using contraception. This has risen over the last five years from 15 to 23 percent and only 2 percent regularly use a condom. (But 35% have unmet needs for Family Planning!) There is thus no reliable evidence showing a change in sexual behaviour of people in Uganda."
Impact of Improved Treatment of Sexually Transmitted Diseases on HIV Infection in Rural Tanzania: Randomized Controlled Trial
 Heiner Gosskurth, et. al.
  The researchers claimed that "improved STD treatment (and not change of change sexual behavior) reduced HIV incidence by about 40%...[in] the first randomized trial to demonstrate an impact of a preventive intervention on HIV incidence in a general population." On closer inspection of the data, one realizes how the 40% reduction was measured. Of the individuals who initially tested HIV-negative, in the intervention group 48 out of 4149 (1.2%) were HIV-positive two years later; 82 of 4400 (1.9%) in the comparison group tested HIV-positive. The researchers arrived at the "40% reduction" figure merely by calculating the difference between 1.2% and 1.9%.
  The Lancet, Vol. 346, (August 26, 1995), pp. 530-36.1995