Dissident AIDS Database

HIV trends in African blood donors.
 Bouckenooghe A, Shandera W
  "To assess trends over the last 12 years in HIV-1/HIV-2 seroprevalence among blood donors in African nations and to correlate trends with national AIDS policies... Among 38 nations with sufficient data, 11 showed increases in HIV-1 seroprevalence, six showed decreases and 21 showed no significant changes."
  J Infect 1999 Sep;39(2):122-81999
India:Village Still to Recover from AIDS 'Stigma'.
 Oberhuber N.
  “The doctors pressured Kaushalya, who was in her sixth month of pregnancy, to get an abortion because of her HIV-infection. ''By telling me a lie they made me lose my only son,'' the young widow mourns. But late last year, a second test [probably a Western Blot or a second ELISA] showed that neither Kaushalya nor her daughter had the AIDS virus... Like most Indian hospitals, the Rohtak hospital carried out only a single HIV test [ELISA] on her husband. In most other nations, at least three tests with similar results [two ELISA and one Western Blot] are required before a patient is confirmed HIV-positive.”
  Terraviva Europe Daily Journal. 2001 Jan 152001
Estimates on HIV called too high, New data cut rates for many nations
 Donnelly John
  "Estimates of the number of people with the AIDS virus have been dramatically overstated in many countries because of errors in statistical models and a possible undetected decline in the pandemic, according to new data and specialists on the disease. In many nations, analysts are cutting the estimates of HIV prevalence by half or more. Rwanda, for instance, a new United Nations estimate due out next month will put HIV prevalence at about 5 percent, according to Rwandan officials, down from more than 11 percent four years ago. In Haiti, a recent unpublished study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found HIV prevalence was less than 3 percent, compared with the UN's most recent estimate of 6 percent. And the numbers in India are coming under increasing scrutiny because surveys in AIDS hot spots are indicating a prevalence rate that is much lower than the national average. Several AIDS specialists said they think the current estimate of 40 million people living with the AIDS virus worldwide is inflated by 25 percent to 50 percent, based on a wide spectrum of household surveys in nearly a dozen countries. That would go against the grain of years of assertions by UNAIDS that the disease is relentlessly on the rise... UN epidemiologists and statisticians responsible for the current estimates acknowledged in interviews that some country figures will be sharply cut in a forthcoming report, but they played down any possibility now of a sizable reduction in the overall number of infected people. They declined to disclose their most recent estimates for 2003, set to be released next month before the 15th International AIDS Conference in Bangkok... Billions of dollars in aid is at stake in the coming years. If HIV seems less menacing, more dollars may go to fighting other diseases or may be redirected away from global health initiatives entirely. Already, earlier this year, US officials told Rwandan AIDS administrators that if HIV prevalence estimates were to drop to 5 percent, the country's AIDS funding may be cut, according to both US and Rwandan officials, speaking on condition of anonymity... Some specialists raised questions about the estimates in mid-January, after a report on a household survey in Kenya that estimated a 6.7 percent national HIV prevalence rate, compared with the UN's 15 percent estimate in 2002... Two weeks later in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, at a conference on estimating HIV and AIDS prevalence, epidemiologist Peter D. Ghys raised the question of potentially inflated AIDS rates before several dozen epidemiologists. Ghys estimates HIV and AIDS figures for UNAIDS. On the last slide of his presentation, Ghys wrote, "Should UNAIDS/ WHO estimates be lowered by 25 percent?"... Asked recently about his question, Ghys said he raised it in light of the new Kenyan data: "We already had lowered estimates quite a bit in the previous year, but since then, we've had additional information that came in somewhat lower than our estimates."... In 2003, the UN revised HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa to 26.6 million people, from 29.4 million the year before. Ties Boerma, who is in charge of the WHO's estimates on the HIV virus, said the UN was preparing to reduce prevalence estimates again this year, although not by 25 percent. Yet Chin and several other specialists say new data from several countries and from high-risk groups in countries suggest that the UN should do so. Chin said he thinks the global rate is inflated by 25 percent to 40 percent, while two US health officials working on AIDS said they think the global numbers may be 50 percent inflated. The two spoke on condition of anonymity. Their reasons : In a slum of the Chennai district in India, a high-risk area for transmission of HIV because of prostitutes and drug users, a recent household survey found 0.2 percent HIV prevalence. The nationwide rate is 0.8 percent, or 4 million people. Ghys acknowledged: "It's difficult to say what is going on in India. In India, there's always a great deal of uncertainty in those estimates. Are we sure it's 0.8 percent? The honest answer is no, we are not sureA recent household survey in Burkina Faso put the national estimate at 1.9 percent; the UN's most recent estimate puts the rate at 7 percent. In Africa, other recent surveys showing significantly lower rates have been in Zambia, South Africa, Mali, and Ghana. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, HIV prevalence in adults aged 15 to 49 in Uganda was estimated as high as 30 percent; now HIV prevalence is estimated at 5 percent. But now many no longer believe the 30 percent figure, raising questions about the true impact of Uganda's much-touted prevention program. Said Ghys: "If we recast our estimates, it wasn't 30 percent, it was maybe 22 or something." Earlier this year, the US government announced its first substantial grants in President Bush's multibillion-dollar plan to fight AIDS. The news release cited a 15 percent HIV prevalence rate in Kenya and a 6 percent rate in Haiti, even though US-funded surveys in both countries had recently concluded that the rate was at least half those figures."
  The Boston Globe, June 20, 20042004
False-Positive and Indeterminate Human Immunodeficiency Virus Test Results in Pregnant Women.
 Doran TI, Parra E.
  “As the number of women being screened has increased, the proportion of false-positive and ambiguous (indeterminate) test results has increased and the positive predictive value (PPV) of the standard HIV test has decreased”
  Arch Fam Med. 2000 Sep/Oct;9:924-92000
But—What About Africa?
 Rasnick David, Fiala Christian
  African AIDS numbers are based on HIV-antibodies in pregnant women Before 1998, two HIV-antibody tests had been performed for the South African surveys: one screening test and a confirmation test on the positive samples. The second test was skipped from 1998 onwards, except in Western Cape, even though generally it is the accepted standard to do at least two tests. These problematic, unconfirmed results from pregnant women are then used to estimate the frequency of HIV in the general population and eventually the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa [Ntsaluba A. National HIV and Syphilis Sero-Prevalence Surveyof women attending Public Antenatal Clinics in South Africa 2000. Pretoria, South Africa: Ministry of Health, Director-General for Health, 2000:13 pages].
How much longer can we afford the AIDS virus monopoly?
 Duesberg Peter
  HIV is a long-established virus in the US because the number of carriers has remained completely stable since its discovery.
  AIDS: virus or drug-induced?, Kluwer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 1996; 241-2701996
1 in 300 U.S. adults infected, says report.
 Krieger L.
  HIV is a long-established virus in the US because the number of carriers has remained completely stable since its discovery.
  SF Examiner (San Francisco) 1996: A8, July 7.1996
Public health surveillance of AIDS and HIV infections
 Chin J
  "It should be emphasised that surveillance definitions for AIDS were not intended to be reliable indicators for HIV infection. Thus, in areas where the prevalence of HIV infection is very low, the WHO clinical definition primarily identifies patients with tuberculosis, severe malnutrition or diarrhoea."
  Bulletin of the WHO, 1990; 68(5): 529-361990
Update on Uganda : an analysis of the predictions and assumptions about the former epicenter of the AIDS epidemic. Implications for other African countries
 Fiala Chistian
  "These predictions [evolution of seroprevalence] are mainly based on antenatal screening, which showed an impressive increase of HIV-positive pregnant women (department of health, republic of SA). It is only in a short paragraph of this report that we find an unexpected revelation of the authors: they changed the protocol in order to get an “expected prevalence trend”. In other words, they changed the conditions of the study to be sure the result will show a high and increasing number of people with a positive HIV test. Needless to say that this is against all scientific standard (p2, summary report, national hiv sero-prevalence survey of women attending public antenatal clinics in SA 1999)."
AIDS in Africa, In Search of the Truth
 Malan Rian
  "In the annual pregnancy-clinic surveys on which South Africa's terrifying AIDS statistics are based, the protocol is one ELISA only, unconfirmed by anything. In America one ELISA means almost nothing. "Persons are positive only when they are repeatedly reactive by ELISA and confirmed by Western Blot," says the CDC. The companies that manufacture ELISAs agree: The tests must be confirmed by other means. "Repeatedly reactive specimens may contain antibodies" to HIV, one firm's literature says, "Therefore additional, more specific tests must be run to verify a positive result... According to a WHO report, "Confirmation by a second test is necessary only in settings where estimated HIV prevalence is known to be less than ten percent.""
  RollingStone magazine, November 22, 20012001
 Malan Rian
  "AIDS researchers were in for a surprise: probability of transmission by one sexual intercourse was one in 909 for both sexes, seven times lower than the assumption on which the MRC has been operating. Change just this one parameter in the MRC's computer model, and the number of estimated AIDS cases falls radically. MRC chief Prof Malegapuru Makgoba has denounced such "tinkering" as nonsensical, on the grounds that the outcome cannot be reconciled with HIV prevalence figures derived from pregnancy clinic surveys. But what if those figures are skewed by unconfirmed testing?"
  Business Day (South Africa) 2 Nov. 20012001