Dissident AIDS Database

NIAID paper : HIV causes AIDSAfricaHIV-mortalityTimaeus study
AIDS in Africa, In Search of the Truth
 Malan Rian
  (Timaeus IM, AIDS 1998;12 Suppl 1:S15-27, Impact of the HIV epidemic on mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from national surveys and censuses) "Since 1984, researchers financed by the U.S. Agency for International Development have conducted detailed health interviews with several thousand mothers in developing countries worldwide. Among the questions put to them are these: How many children did your mother have? How many are still alive? When did the others die? Timaeus realized that close analysis of the answers might reveal trends that were failing to show up elsewhere. He set to work, and published the results in the journal AIDS in 1998. "In just six years (1989-1995) in Uganda," he wrote, "men's death rates more than doubled." Similar trends were revealed in Tanzania, he reported, where "men's deaths apparently rose eighty percent" in the same period. Again, this seemed to settle the matter, but again, there were puzzling complications... Could there have been some problem with Timaeus' data? Kenneth Hill is the Johns Hopkins university demographer who helped conceive the sibling-history technique. Recently, he and his team embarked on a worldwide evaluation of its performance in the field, to check on its accuracy. Last year, an article co-authored by Hill reported that the method was prone to something called, "downward bias" - meaning that people remember recent deaths pretty clearly, but those from years back tend to fade. According to the article, which appeared in Studies in Family Planning, this usually leads to a false impression of rising mortality rates as you near the present. This has happened even in counties where there was little or no AIDS. In Namibia, for instance, the sibling method detected a 156 percent rise in the fourteen years prior to 1992, when the country's HIV infection rate ranged from zero to one percent. "This lack of precision," Hill and his associate wrote, "precludes the use of these data for trend analysis.""
  RollingStone magazine, November 22, 20012001