Dissident AIDS Database

NIAID paper : HIV causes AIDSDeveloped countriesSurvival with AZT/PIsStatistics
Projected incidence of AIDS in San Francisco: the peak and decline of an epidemic
 Katz Michael et al
  New HIV infections of San Francisco gay men inexplicably peaked at 7,600 back in 1982 - years before the initiation of any safe-sex campaigns. The study also revealed that since 1987, San Francisco has maintained a mysteriously steady rate of 500 new HIV infections per year despite increases in other sexually transmitted diseases. As the authors pointed out, this information is critical because "our analysis shows that San Francisco would have experienced a significant decline in AIDS cases due to the decrease in HIV seroconversions, even if combination antiretroviral therapy had not been developed." An analysis confirmed by Stine (1998) and both NIAID Director Anthony Fauci and Helene Gayle of the CDC (Goldberg, 2000).
  Journal of AIDS and Human Retrovirology, November 1997; Vol. 16, No. 3: 182-1891997
Reconstruction and prediction of the HIV/AIDS epidemic among adults in the European Union and in the low prevalence countries of central and eastern Europe
 Downs A et al
  After 1993-94 the number of new cases of AIDS fell significantly. This regression happened because there was no independent spread of AIDS outside the original risk groups. In this study the average ten years‘ incubation time (between HIV infection and full-blown AIDS) was subtracted from the reported AIDS-cases. This showed that new HIV infections had reached a highpoint as early as 1984, long before the first "prevention" campaigns.
  AIDS, 1997; 11: 649-621997
But—What About Africa?
 Rasnick David, Fiala Christian
  San Francisco continues to report AIDS cases according to specific AIDS-defining diseases. The San Francisco Quarterly AIDS Surveillance Report for 2000 shows in Table 10 on page 8 that 47.7 percent of all AIDS cases from 1980 through 2000 were diagnosed with AIDS according to the two lab tests of the 1993 definition change.] Since this is a cumulative number, which combines all AIDS cases under four different definitions of AIDS, well over half of all people (mostly gay men) in San Francisco that are currently being labelled as AIDS cases have no AIDS-defining disease. In spite of the 1993 definition change, with its inclusion of large numbers of healthy people as AIDS cases, the figure on page one of reference reflects the national picture showing that the number of new AIDS cases in San Francisco has steadily declined since a peak of 760 in 1992 to below 50 in 2000, the same low level as in 1982. [Katz M, Schwarcz S, Hsu L, Parisi MK, Chu PL, Scheer S. Quarterly AIDS Surveillance Report, San Francisco Department of Public Health, HIV Seroepidemiology and Surveillance Section, AIDS Surveillance Unit, 2000]
 US Centers for Disease Control & Los Angeles County Department of Health Services
  CDC statistics clearly show that new AIDS cases started dropping in 1993, several years before protease inhibitor cocktails were introduced. This would seem to be the most obvious explanation for any decrease in AIDS death rates. Intriguingly, the drop in HIV-related deaths was more than 25% between 1995 to 1996 (AIDS death peaked even in 1994 in Los Angeles County), which was before the "widespread" use of HAART in the United States. Between 1996 and 1997, the drop of AIDS death was 42% but in 1996, according to a 2001 report by the CDC, less than 20% of HIV positives held prescriptions for the new drugs. [McNaughten's team analyzed and compared data gathered between 1996 and 1999 by the Adult/Adolescent Spectrum of HIV Disease project. The project followed almost 17,000 patients in 11 U.S. cities, all of whom were eligible to receive highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART). The proportion of patients who were prescribed HAART rose from just under 20% in 1996 to almost 70% in 1999, maybe because of a general rise in insurance coverage for such medications across the board. Worth noting is the researchers' assumption that number of prescriptions written indicate the actual number of people taking the prescribed drugs and complying with strict dosage requirements : Reuters Health NY, tuesday February 20, 2001]. Moreover, media reports today acknowledge that 50% of those taking the drugs fail to receive lasting benefit. In addition, in 1993 the number of AIDS cases doubled overnight when the definition of AIDS was changed for the third time, almost entirely because the 1993 definition change allowed people who had low T-cell counts, but no illnesses, to be listed as AIDS cases. Since then two-thirds of AIDS cases have been people who may be clinically healthy which created an artificial inflation of AIDS cases. These new cases were at low-risk, and thus the average life-expectancy of people diagnosed with AIDS would be expected to increase, no matter what medications were used. The CDC itself states that the new figures for AIDS prevalence have been artificially inflated by the definition changes.
  HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report, year end reports through 2000 and HIV Epidemiology Program, March 15, 20012001
Survival after AIDS diagnosis in adolescents and adults during the treatment era, United States, 1984-1997
 Lee LM, Karon JM, Selik R, Neal JJ, Fleming PL
  "...estimates of survival for the remaining 394,705 cases (of diagnosed AIDS-defining Opportunistic Infection (OI) in the US) showed that median survival time improved with each successive year of OI diagnosis, from 11 months for persons with AIDS diagnosed in 1984 to 46 months for persons with AIDS diagnosed in 1995. The greatest 1-year increase in median survival time was from 21 months for persons with an OI diagnosed in 1994 to 46 months for those with an OI diagnosed in 1995... For each year of diagnosis in 1993-1997, the probability of survival for at least 24 months among persons with an immunologic diagnosis was 67%, 71%, 80%, 87%, and 90%, respectively... Among persons with an initial OI diagnosis in 1993-1997, the probability of survival for at least 24 months was 49%, 52%, 63%, 74%, and 80%, respectively... We saw a smaller reduction in risk of death for persons in whom AIDS was diagnosed in1997, which mirrors the slowing rate of decline in AIDS deaths reported in 1998. This may reflect maximization of benefits of new therapies." In other words, the miracles ascribed to the PI combos all happened before just about anyone had access to Protease Inhibitors and the authors do not explore the possibility that the smaller reduction in death in 1997 and 1998 may be due to the devastating health effects of the new therapies.
  The Journal of the American Medical Association, March 14, 20012001